营销科学学报 ›› 2017, Vol. 13 ›› Issue (2): 127-145.

• 论文 • 上一篇    下一篇

基于Lotka-Volterra的创新产品扩散仿真研究

李春发 ,陶建强 ,孙雷霆 ,高华   

  1. 李春发,天津理工大学管理学院教授,博士生导师,E-mail:chunfali@163.com。
    陶建强,通讯作者,天津理工大学管理学院,硕士研究生,E-mail:948158635@qq.com。
    孙雷霆,天津理工大学管理学院博士研究生,E-mail:sunleiting2011@163.com。
    高华,  天津理工大学管理学院教授,硕士生导师,E-mail:lotusgh@126.com。
  • 出版日期:2017-06-30 发布日期:2018-03-20
  • 基金资助:

    本研究得到国家自然科学基金项目(71471131)资助,特此感谢。非常感谢两位匿名评审专家所提的宝贵修改意见和建议。

Simulation of diffusion of Innovative Products Based on Lotka-Volterra

Li Chunfa,Tao Jianqiang,Sun Leiting,Gao Hua   

  1. Li Chunfa,    School of Management,Tianjin University of Technology Tianjin,300384,China
    Tao Jianqiang,School of Management,Tianjin University of Technology Tianjin,300384,China
    Sun Leiting,  School of Management,Tianjin University of Technology Tianjin,300384,China
    Gao Hua,       School of Management,Tianjin University of Technology Tianjin,300384,China
  • Online:2017-06-30 Published:2018-03-20

摘要:

针对市场竞争背景下创新产品扩散问题的特殊性,首先运用消费者行为理论,从体验论视角逻辑推演消费者行为的动态历程。然后借鉴Bass与Lotka-Volterra模型对竞争环境下消费者感知行为进行了具体描述与数理建模,在此基础上,利用交互建模技术对创新产品扩散过程建模仿真。最后,通过两种情景数值分析比较与实例分析验证模型的有效性。研究表明:企业的竞争能力越强创新产品的市场占有额越高,且对消费者感知价值呈现正向影响,消费者感知价值可以促进消费者的二次购买行为;正面口碑与广告正向影响消费者的购买决策;负面口碑负向影响消费者购买决策。

关键词: 竞争环境, 创新产品, 扩散模型, 交互建模, 仿真

Abstract:

In view of the particularity of the diffusion of innovative products under the background of market competition, First of all, by using the theory of consumer behavior, the dynamic process of consumer behavior is derived from the perspective of experience theory. Then, Bass and Lotka-Volterra model are used to describe the consumer's perceptual behavior in competitive environment. Based on this model, the interactive modeling technology is used to simulate the diffusion of innovative products. Finally, through the analysis of the two situations of numerical comparison and example analysis validate the effectiveness, The results show that the competitive ability of the enterprise more market share is higher, and has positive influence on customer perceived value, customer perceived value can promote consumer's two purchase behavior; Positive word-of-mouth and advertising positively affect the customer's purchase decision; negative word of mouth negative impact on consumer purchasing decision.

Key words: Competitive environment, Innovation product, Diffusion model, Interactive modeling, Simulation