营销科学学报 ›› 2016, Vol. 12 ›› Issue (3): 1-17.

• 论文 •    下一篇

从动态竞争理论的视角看电影口碑对票房的影响

贺凯彬,王锐,张涵   

  1. 贺凯彬,北京大学光华管理学院营销系博士研究生,E-mail: kaibinhe@pku.edu.cn。
    王锐(通讯作者),北京大学光华管理学院营销系副教授,E-mail: rwang@gsm.pku.edu.cn。 
    张涵,百度时代网络技术(北京)有限公司金融事业部,E-mail:zhanghan13@baidu.com。
  • 出版日期:2016-09-01 发布日期:2017-03-15
  • 基金资助:

    本研究得到国家自然科学基金项目(71272006)的资助,特此致谢。非常感谢匿名评审专家所提的修改意见和建议。

The Impact of Word-of-Mouth on Box office——A Dynamic Competitive View

  1. Kaibin He, Guanghua School of Management, Peking University.
    Rui Wang, Guanghua School of Management, Peking University.
    Han Zhang, Baidu Times Netmedia Technology (Beijing) Limited Company.
  • Online:2016-09-01 Published:2017-03-15

摘要:

已有文献多关注口碑对电影本身票房的影响,本文突破以往研究的理论框架,从动态竞争理论的视角探讨同档期电影口碑对于票房收入的影响。本文提出,同档期电影之间存在动态竞争的关系,目标电影的票房收入不仅取决于电影自身的口碑,还和同档期其他电影的口碑有关。研究使用2011年至2014年780部在中国内地上映的电影票房和网络口碑数据,发现目标电影口碑效价与同档期内电影最高口碑效价的差距越大,目标电影的票房收入越小。研究还发现,档期的热门程度和同档期电影数量有助于调节这种负向作用。在此基础上,本文还讨论了电影档期选择的营销策略。

关键词: 电影口碑, 票房收入, 动态竞争

Abstract:

Whereas the traditional focus in Word-of-Mouth (WOM) literature has been on understanding how WOM of a movie influence the box office of its own, this research investigates the impact of WOM on box office in a dynamic competitive view. We propose that movies released in the same schedule compete with each other dynamically, thus the box office of a movie not only depends on the WOM of its own, but also relates to the WOM of peer movies’ in the same schedule. Using box office and WOM data of 780 movies during 2011-2014 in mainland china, we found that the gap between a focal movie’s WOM valence and the highest WOM valence in the same schedule has a negative impact on the box office of the focal movie. Moreover, this effect is moderated by the number of movies in the schedule and the season the movie is released (whether it’s high season or not). The marketing strategy is discussed as well based on these findings.

Key words: Word-of Mouth, Box office, Dynamic competition