营销科学学报 ›› 2015, Vol. 11 ›› Issue (1): 22-38.

• 论文 • 上一篇    下一篇

交易型社区的病毒式营销策略:基于社会影响、同质性和网络拓扑结构的ABMS仿真研究

肖邦明,黄敏学   

  1. 肖邦明,武汉大学经济与管理学院博士研究生,E-mail:bangmingshaw@163.com。
    黄敏学,武汉大学经济与管理学院教授、博导,E-mail:huangminxue@126.com。
  • 出版日期:2015-03-01 发布日期:2015-05-07
  • 基金资助:

    本研究得到国家自然科学基金项目(71372127)和武汉大学研究生自主科研项目(2013105010212)的资助,非常感谢两位匿名评审专家所提的宝贵修改意见和建议。

Seeding Strategies in Transactional Community: an ABMS based on Social Influence, Homophily and Network Topology

Xiao Bangming, Huang Minxue   

  1. Economics and Management School of Wuhan University
  • Online:2015-03-01 Published:2015-05-07

摘要:

病毒式营销是企业在社会化商务背景下广泛采取的一种社会化营销策略,以往的研究往往基于消费者所嵌入的社会网络,运用ABMS(agent-based model simulation)仿真技术模拟社会影响机制下的口碑传播绩效。但在社会化商务背景下逐渐发展起来的交易型社区外在的网络结构(具有双模特性)和内在的成员心理机制(以信息型影响为主导)与传统的社会网络有本质区别。本研究以国内最大的交易型网站(淘宝网)为平台,基于爬虫技术获取其中两个交易型社区(淘宝帮派)中全部成员的人际关系和社区活动数据,通过ABMS仿真实验探讨了社会影响机制(基于人际间的口碑传播)、同质性机制(以社区活动为载体的传播)和社区的网络拓扑结构对这些社区的病毒式营销绩效的影响。研究发现:(1)不考虑每一个社区成员顾客价值的差异,初始节点规模的增加(从0.5%到5%)并不会增强扩散传播的效果(因为初始节点影响范围的重叠性);(2)在控制了网络密度的随机网络实验中,基于社会影响机制的扩散与基于同质性机制的扩散效果差异显著;(3)当改变网络拓扑结构为真实网络时,社会影响和同质性影响的扩散差异依然显著。特别的,同质性机制虽然在初期会显著提升扩散速度,但由于受到社区活动数量的限制,其最终的扩散范围却没有基于社会影响扩散的范围广;(4)探讨初始节点类型的选择对扩散绩效影响的实验表明,相对于随机选取的节点,选择那些在双模网络中同时占据中心位置的成员会显著提升传播扩散的速度直至“饱和效应(saturation effect)”的出现。

关键词: 顾客行为粘性, 消费动机, 顾客价值, 随机概率模型, 网络购物

Abstract:

Viral marketing is widely used as a social marketing strategy in the era of social commerce. Previous research applied agent-based model to simulate the social influence and explored the viral marketing performance under social network. But transactional community, which developed in the era of social commerce, is different from traditional social network in its network structure (dual network system) and members’ psychologies (informational influence). This research, based on the platform of largest transactional website in China (Taobao.com), applied web crawling technique to extract data of consumers’ social relation and activities from two transactional communities (Taobao Bangpai) and used ABMS to explore the effects of social influence, homophily and network topology on viral marketing performance. The results shows: (1) regardless of heterogeneous customer value, the increase in seed size (from 0.5% to 5%) would not increase the performance of viral marketing strategy (due to the overlap effect of each seed); (2) when the density is controlled in random network, the performance of viral marketing based on social influence is significantly different from homophily mechanism; (3) when the network topology is adjusted into real world relationships, the difference is still significant. Especially, the homophily mechanism would only speed up the viral marketing process in an early phase, it cannot spread as wide as social influence do in the long term. This is because the constraints of community activity in homophily mechanism; (4) the experiment of exploring the effect of types of seeds on viral marketing performance shows that, compared with randomly chosen seeds, the seeds who possess central position (degree centrality) both in two layers of networks can significantly speed up the viral marketing process until the point of saturation effect.

Key words: transactional community, viral marketing, social influence, homophily, ABMS