基于互联网搜索量的先导景气指数、需求预测及消费者购前调研行为——以汽车行业为例

营销科学学报 ›› 2013, Vol. 9 ›› Issue (3): 31-44.

基于互联网搜索量的先导景气指数、需求预测及消费者购前调研行为——以汽车行业为例

冯明，刘淳

冯明，通讯作者，清华大学经济管理学院金融系博士研究生，E-mail: fengm.06@sem.tsinghua.edu.cn。
刘淳，清华大学经济管理学院金融系副教授，E-mail: liuch@sem.tsinghua.edu.cn。

出版日期:2013-09-01 发布日期:2013-12-24
基金资助:
本研究得到国家自然科学基金资助项目（项目号为71202019和71232003），特此致谢。作者非常感谢两位匿名评审专家提出的宝贵建议。

Pre-purchase Research Behaviors, Leading Climate Index and Demand Forecasting Based on Internet Search Data: the Case of Automobile Industry in China

Feng Ming, Liu Chun

School of Economics and Management, Tsinghua University

Online:2013-09-01 Published:2013-12-24

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

随着互联网的逐渐普及，越来越多的消费者开始在网上进行购前调研行为，而搜索引擎使得捕捉和追踪这些购前调研行为成为可能。本文以汽车行业为例，首次通过互联网搜索量频率数据设计并构建了中国汽车需求先导景气指数“GCAI”，并基于此对中国汽车消费者的购前调研行为进行了研究。实证分析发现该先导指数有较强的预测力，不仅可以提高预测精度，还可以增强预测的时效性。同时，我们发现搜索量可以度量消费者的“关注”，而且汽车行业消费者的购前网上调研行为是分阶段的，有明显的“U型”规律。

关键词: 搜索引擎, 需求预测, 汽车, 购前调研行为, 先导指数

Abstract:

With the increasing popularity of Internet, many consumers search the information of an item on line before buying it. The search engines like Google and Baidu provide vehicle to capture and track the pre-purchase research behaviors. We design and construct a leading climate index of China's automobile demand based on the internet search volume data, namely “Google China Automobile Index”. Our index has strong forecasting power on the market demand. Meanwhile, we find that consumers’ pre-purchase research behavior has two stages, which is named as “U-shape” rule in this paper.

Key words: Search engine, Demand forecasting, Automobile, Pre-purchase research behavior, Leading index

冯明，刘淳. 基于互联网搜索量的先导景气指数、需求预测及消费者购前调研行为——以汽车行业为例[J]. 营销科学学报, 2013, 9(3): 31-44.

Feng Ming, Liu Chun. Pre-purchase Research Behaviors, Leading Climate Index and Demand Forecasting Based on Internet Search Data: the Case of Automobile Industry in China[J]. Journal of Marketing Science, 2013, 9(3): 31-44.